Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Dec 20 2022 05:53:59

ACUS01 KWNS 200553
SWODY1
SPC AC 200552

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1152 PM CST Mon Dec 19 2022

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
The severe-thunderstorm potential appears low on Tuesday, though a
strong storm or two will be possible across the Florida Keys and
vicinity.

....Florida Keys into the far southern Florida Peninsula...
Widespread convection will likely be ongoing later this morning
across parts of the central/eastern Gulf of Mexico, in conjunction
with an eastward-moving mid/upper-level shortwave trough. With
relatively cool and dry conditions (as noted in regional surface
observations and 00Z soundings) downstream and limited potential for
substantial low-level moisture advection, a general weakening trend
is expected with any thunderstorms as they approach the Florida Gulf
Coast later today.

More substantial destabilization (with MLCAPE potentially rising to
1000-1500 J/kg) will be possible this afternoon across the Florida
Keys and far southern Florida Peninsula, where somewhat greater
low-level moistening (characterized by dewpoints rising to around 70
F) is expected. While stronger large-scale ascent will likely remain
north of this region, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms may
develop this afternoon as MLCINH weakens. Veering wind profiles
(with effective shear greater than 40 kt) will be conditionally
favorable for organized convection, though weak-to-modest midlevel
lapse rates may temper the hail threat, while generally weak
low-level flow will tend to limit the potential for an organized
severe-wind risk. A Marginal Risk has not been included due to
uncertainty regarding storm coverage and intensity, but severe
probabilities may eventually be needed depending on shorter-term
observational and guidance trends.

...Dean/Weinman.. 12/20/2022

$$

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