Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Dec 19 2022 19:35:57 ACUS01 KWNS 191935 SWODY1 SPC AC 191934 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0134 PM CST Mon Dec 19 2022 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ....SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will continue to spread from eastern Texas across the Gulf Coast states. Though small hail is possible, severe weather remains unlikely over land. Surface observations along the Gulf Coast continue to show a rather stable air mass for surface-based parcels, with the best instability well offshore into the northwest Gulf of Mexico. Though a tight instability gradient will exist near the surface low, it is unlikely that this better air mass will reach shore. To the north, modest elevated instability and moderate deep-layer effective shear may support a few embedded storms capable of small hail through tonight, but hail over 1.00" diameter appears unlikely across Texas and Louisiana. ...Jewell.. 12/19/2022 ..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1015 AM CST Mon Dec 19 2022/ ....Synopsis... Mid-morning regional radar mosaics show a broad region of elevated convection across the TX coastal plain into central LA driven primarily by deep isentropic ascent in the 925-850 mb layer. Along the immediate TX Gulf Coast, surface observations suggest a small zone of warm/moist air (temperatures and dewpoint in the mid 60s) is in place that is supportive of surface-based convection. However, this air mass is expected to largely remain offshore over the next 24 hours as a weak surface low, currently off the Corpus Christi coast, translates east/northeast through the day. The broad zone of precipitation across east TX/LA will reinforce the coastal baroclinic zone, limiting the potential for surface-based buoyancy over land. Given somewhat strong speed shear in the 3-6 km layer, organized elevated convection is possible across portions of the TX coastal plain, mostly likely during the 17-20 UTC period when storm modes are most likely to be discrete before eventual upscale growth/increasing storm interactions within the warm advection regime. Small, sub-severe hail is possible with these storms, but the potential for 1+ inch hail appears sufficiently limited to withhold probabilities. $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .