Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Dec 19 2022 16:16:54

ACUS01 KWNS 191616
SWODY1
SPC AC 191615

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1015 AM CST Mon Dec 19 2022

Valid 191630Z - 201200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms should develop and spread eastward across the Gulf
Coastal Plain from south Texas to near Mobile.  Though small hail is
possible, organized severe weather still appears unlikely over land.

....Synopsis...
Mid-morning regional radar mosaics show a broad region of elevated
convection across the TX coastal plain into central LA driven
primarily by deep isentropic ascent in the 925-850 mb layer. Along
the immediate TX Gulf Coast, surface observations suggest a small
zone of warm/moist air (temperatures and dewpoint in the mid 60s) is
in place that is supportive of surface-based convection. However,
this air mass is expected to largely remain offshore over the next
24 hours as a weak surface low, currently off the Corpus Christi
coast, translates east/northeast through the day. The broad zone of
precipitation across east TX/LA will reinforce the coastal
baroclinic zone, limiting the potential for surface-based buoyancy
over land. Given somewhat strong speed shear in the 3-6 km layer,
organized elevated convection is possible across portions of the TX
coastal plain, mostly likely during the 17-20 UTC period when storm
modes are most likely to be discrete before eventual upscale
growth/increasing storm interactions within the warm advection
regime. Small, sub-severe hail is possible with these storms, but
the potential for 1+ inch hail appears sufficiently limited to
withhold probabilities.

...Moore/Grams.. 12/19/2022

$$

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