Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Dec 19 2022 08:04:11

FOUS30 KWBC 190804
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
302 AM EST Mon Dec 19 2022

Day 1
Valid 12Z Mon Dec 19 2022 - 12Z Tue Dec 20 2022

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL and WESTERN GULF COAST STATES...=20
=20
The Marginal Risk area was largely maintained from continuity.=20
Overlapping low- to mid-level frontogenesis along with
precipitable water values of 1-1.5" within an area with 1000-500
hPa thickness values in the mid to upper 550s decameters (a
saturated atmosphere), convergent south to southwest low-level
inflow of 25-35 kts with effective bulk shear to match, and
500-1000 J/kg of MU CAPE across portions of TX, LA, and MS is
expected to lead to heavy rainfall from potentially organized
convection across and inland of the western to central Gulf Coast.
 Hourly rain totals to 1.5" inland and closer to 2" near the coast
are possible in this environment, with the HREF showing the most
potential along the immediate shoreline/coastal marshes of
Louisiana.  The 00z HREF probabilities show a high chance of 3"+
across central LA and along the central LA coast, with a 20-25%
chance of 5"+ near and west of Fort Polk LA.  Narrow streaks near
and inland of the Gulf coast have seen 300%+ of their average
rainfall during the past week, making some areas more sensitive to
additional heavy rains.  However, much of where the higher amounts
near the central LA/TX border and across western LA is wooded and
show minimal overlap where heavy rains fell during the past week.=20
Urban areas would also be sensitive to such rainfall.  While small
pockets of Slight Risk-type impacts are possible, it wouldn't be a
large enough area from a probability perspective for an upgrade.

Roth


Day 2

The Day 2 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 3

The Day 3 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6QHjcDBd0ZzwSgxiGAkfzaOk0ocqJ8FhhWuapZ99P5Be=
gxkdbz8QFiySQm04bUDRcOyRb20rjN5_Cv12-U3ibuawjGc$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6QHjcDBd0ZzwSgxiGAkfzaOk0ocqJ8FhhWuapZ99P5Be=
gxkdbz8QFiySQm04bUDRcOyRb20rjN5_Cv12-U3iDF7AicU$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6QHjcDBd0ZzwSgxiGAkfzaOk0ocqJ8FhhWuapZ99P5Be=
gxkdbz8QFiySQm04bUDRcOyRb20rjN5_Cv12-U3i9A82Z1Q$=20


$$



=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.