Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Dec 19 2022 05:12:21

ACUS01 KWNS 190512
SWODY1
SPC AC 190510

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1110 PM CST Sun Dec 18 2022

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms will develop throughout the day on Monday
over eastern Texas, and spread into Louisiana and southern
Mississippi through Tuesday morning. Small hail may occur, but
severe storms are not anticipated.

....Southern/eastern Texas to central Gulf Coast...
A positive-tilt upper trough will move across OK/TX on Monday as an
associated surface low develops and moves east over the
northwest/north-central Gulf of Mexico. Expansive surface high
pressure over the OH Valley will extend southwest across the lower
MS Valley, where a cool/stable boundary-layer air mass will reside
inland from the western/middle Gulf coast. Above this stable
boundary layer, low-level warm/moist advection will strengthen with
time resulting in widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms
much of the day. NAM/RAP forecast soundings from southeast TX across
southern LA suggest MUCAPE may approach 500-1000 J/kg in some areas,
potentially supportive of a few stronger storms with hail. Current
thinking is that mostly small hail is expected given expected
widespread coverage of precipitation and the prevalence of generally
modest instability which should limit the overall severe risk.

...Bunting/Weinman.. 12/19/2022

$$

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