Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Dec 18 2022 19:28:46

ACUS01 KWNS 181928
SWODY1
SPC AC 181927

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0127 PM CST Sun Dec 18 2022

Valid 182000Z - 191200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected overnight into
early Monday morning across the Texas and Louisiana Gulf Coast.

Little change was made to the previous outlook except to remove
thunder chances from southern Florida given continued drying from
the north. Otherwise, scattered elevated convection is expected
overnight across parts of Texas as warm advection increases in
advance of the shortwave trough.

...Jewell.. 12/18/2022

..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1007 AM CST Sun Dec 18 2022/

....Synopsis...
Morning satellite imagery and surface observations show a cold front
slowly pushing south across south FL. This boundary will continue to
focus thunderstorm activity through the day amid modest buoyancy and
minimal inhibition (as sampled by the 12 UTC KEY sounding). 30-40
knot mid-level winds may allow for transient storm organization, but
multicellular storm mode and weak forcing for ascent will limit the
severe threat.

To the west, dry conditions are noted along the TX Gulf Coast with
dewpoints in the low to mid 50s. Some degree of moistening of the
continental air mass is apparent over the western Gulf in visible
imagery, and additional moistening is expected as southerly
low-level winds increase in response to an approaching shortwave
trough (currently over southern AZ). The combination of
low/mid-level moistening and increasing isentropic ascent will
promote isolated to scattered shower/thunderstorm development after
03 UTC tonight. While most convection is expected to be elevated in
nature, more robust surface-based thunderstorms are possible along
the immediate TX coast where dewpoints in the low/mid 60s are
probable and effective shear values could reach upwards of 40-50
knots. Ensemble guidance suggests this moisture will largely remain
over coastal areas, limiting the potential for strong/severe storms
over land.

$$

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