Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Dec 18 2022 19:03:59

FOUS30 KWBC 181903
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
203 PM EST Sun Dec 18 2022

Day 1
Valid 16Z Sun Dec 18 2022 - 12Z Mon Dec 19 2022

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Campbell


Day 2
Valid 12Z Mon Dec 19 2022 - 12Z Tue Dec 20 2022

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF STATES...

21Z update...  Overall the environment remained nearly the same
from the previous forecast cycle however the QPF along the
immediate Gulf Coast did increase and expand west-east from
southeast Texas to the Mississippi Delta. Additionally, there was
a broadening of the QPF swath across eastern Texas, northern
Louisiana and central Mississippi along and near where the frontal
boundary is expected to reside. The WPC QPF trended upwards with
areal averages of 1 to 3+ inches. As such, the Marginal Risk was
expanded westward while reshaped/reduced slightly across western
Alabama.

Campbell

Previous discussion... Maintained the Marginal Risk area with few
changes from when it was issued on Saturday.  Once
again...guidance has trended in incrementally higher along the
immediate coast across parts of southeast Texas and southern
Louisiana while maintaining a separate QPF swath maximum centered
over north-central Louisiana closer to a front that is forecast to
be just offshore.  While there has been some run to run
adjustments in the placement and the amounts...the overall picture
remains similar (including surface based instability creeping
closer to the coast from southeast Texas to extreme southern
Alabama and northern to northern Louisiana and central
Mississippi.

Bann



Day 3

The Day 3 outlook will be updated by 2030Z.


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!8loROCN_Vo4V2LzwcoRlQdi-oxE7WDvEQUzHpjLIu17T=
YlocZKlmJwvz3A_DsSWc-x25c-1gYg14OHllt5_uAOPsvF8$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!8loROCN_Vo4V2LzwcoRlQdi-oxE7WDvEQUzHpjLIu17T=
YlocZKlmJwvz3A_DsSWc-x25c-1gYg14OHllt5_uVFrW7kY$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!8loROCN_Vo4V2LzwcoRlQdi-oxE7WDvEQUzHpjLIu17T=
YlocZKlmJwvz3A_DsSWc-x25c-1gYg14OHllt5_uyLYBvg0$=20


$$



=3D =3D =3D
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