Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Dec 18 2022 17:09:19

ACUS02 KWNS 181709
SWODY2
SPC AC 181707

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1107 AM CST Sun Dec 18 2022

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Scattered storms will develop throughout the day on Monday over
eastern Texas, and spread into Louisiana and southern Mississippi
through Tuesday morning. Small hail may occur, but severe storms are
not anticipated.

....Synopsis...
A positive-tilt shortwave trough will move eastward across the
southern Plains into the lower MS Valley, with a weak surface low
developing over the northwest Gulf of Mexico. A surface high will
remain over much of the East, and this will result in little to no
surface moisture return. Increasing southerly winds above the
surface will result in theta-e advection from TX into the lower MS
Valley, with lift resulting in widespread precipitation. Elevated
instability will favor scattered thunderstorms by midday over
eastern TX, then into LA and southern MS overnight.

Forecast soundings show maximum MUCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg may develop
over eastern TX and LA, along with effective deep shear of 20-40 kt,
depending on parcel levels. This may enhance effective-layer storm
relative inflow, and possibly support small hail. A cool sub-cloud
layer may also minimize melting, but at this time the overall severe
threat appears low with numerous competing storms expected.

...Jewell.. 12/18/2022

$$

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