Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Dec 18 2022 09:42:14

ACUS48 KWNS 180942
SWOD48
SPC AC 180940

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0340 AM CST Sun Dec 18 2022

Valid 211200Z - 261200Z

....DISCUSSION...
....Wednesday/Day 4 to Friday/Day 6...
An upper-level trough will move quickly southeastward across the
Rockies on Wednesday and into the southern Plains on Thursday. Ahead
of the system, a moist airmass will be in place across the eastern
Gulf of Mexico and Florida. Thunderstorms may develop from the
Florida Peninsula into the southeastern states from Thursday into
Thursday night as a surface low moves north-northeastward into the
Tennessee Valley. An isolated severe threat will be possible.

An upper-level low is forecast to develop across the Ohio Valley on
Friday, as the surface low rapidly deepens at an extreme rate.
Although instability will be weak along the Eastern Seaboard, an
isolated severe threat will still be possible due to enhanced
large-scale ascent and strong deep-layer shear. However, instability
is forecast to be very weak ahead of this system across most of the
eastern U.S., suggesting the severe threat on Thursday and Friday
may remain marginal.

....Saturday/Day 7 and Sunday/Day 8...
Cold and dry surface high pressure is forecast to settle in across
the central and eastern U.S. on Saturday and Sunday. This is
forecast to make thunderstorm development unlikely across most of
the continental United States. No severe threat is expected over the
weekend.

...Broyles.. 12/18/2022

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