Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Dec 18 2022 08:23:25

FOUS30 KWBC 180823
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
322 AM EST Sun Dec 18 2022

Day 1
Valid 12Z Sun Dec 18 2022 - 12Z Mon Dec 19 2022

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Bann



Day 2
Valid 12Z Mon Dec 19 2022 - 12Z Tue Dec 20 2022

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF STATES...

Maintained the Marginal Risk area with few changes from when it
was issued on Saturday.  Once again...guidance has trended in
incrementally higher along the immediate coast across parts of
southeast Texas and southern Louisiana while maintaining a
separate QPF swath maximum centered over north-central Louisiana
closer to a front that is forecast to be just offshore.  While
there has been some run to run adjustments in the placement and
the amounts...the overall picture remains similar (including
surface based instability creeping closer to the coast from
southeast Texas to extreme southern Alabama and northern to
northern Louisiana and central Mississippi.

Bann



Day 3

The Day 3 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_9ZfGZgvsbYvIJEBiRQwYxGZ_2mgEyKsZ4m_3u16FcdI=
FIylONantJf1r5DYvsGVcH7YzgDnXUpEe-46_efbmOroS8M$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_9ZfGZgvsbYvIJEBiRQwYxGZ_2mgEyKsZ4m_3u16FcdI=
FIylONantJf1r5DYvsGVcH7YzgDnXUpEe-46_efbV0NUrPk$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_9ZfGZgvsbYvIJEBiRQwYxGZ_2mgEyKsZ4m_3u16FcdI=
FIylONantJf1r5DYvsGVcH7YzgDnXUpEe-46_efbKnsT1Bg$=20


$$



=3D =3D =3D
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