Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Dec 17 2022 19:27:10

ACUS01 KWNS 171927
SWODY1
SPC AC 171925

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0125 PM CST Sat Dec 17 2022

Valid 172000Z - 181200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
A few weak thunderstorms are possible today and tonight over parts
of south Florida and the Keys.

....South FL...
Heating continues south of a stalled front with a moist, uncapped
air mass but little in the way of convergence. However, continued
heating may eventually lead to isolated thunderstorms, but weak
winds below 700 mb along with poor lapse rates should preclude any
severe potential despite strong winds above 500 mb.

...Jewell.. 12/17/2022

..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0947 AM CST Sat Dec 17 2022/

....Synopsis...
Recent objective surface analyses and maritime observations show a
weak surface low over the central Gulf embedded along a stalled
frontal boundary. This feature, likely induced by weak ascent within
the right entrance region of the mid/upper-level jet over the
south-central CONUS, is expected to propagate east/southeast over
the next 24 hours. Thunderstorm development appears probable near
and ahead of the low along the residual boundary as it retreats
north as a weak warm front over the Keys and south FL through the
afternoon. Increasing low-level saturation within the warm frontal
zone overlaid with glancing ascent from the passage of the
upper-level trough may sustain convection into the overnight hours.
Although deep-layer flow and surface-based buoyancy will be adequate
for 30-40 knots of effective bulk shear, weakness in the lapse rate
profile near 600-650 mb will likely modulate updraft intensities.
Instances of small hail and strong wind gusts are possible, but the
overall severe threat remains too low for probabilities.

$$

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