Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Dec 17 2022 15:49:34

FOUS30 KWBC 171549
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1048 AM EST Sat Dec 17 2022

Day 1
Valid 16Z Sat Dec 17 2022 - 12Z Sun Dec 18 2022

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Campbell



Day 2
Valid 12Z Sun Dec 18 2022 - 12Z Mon Dec 19 2022

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Bann


Day 3
Valid 12Z Mon Dec 19 2022 - 12Z Tue Dec 20 2022

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Debated about the need for a Marginal Risk area over portions of
Louisiana where the models and the WPC deterministic QPF have
amounts at or above 1.75 inches.  Think the threat for excessive
rainfall is non-zero if there is enough overlap between the
heaviest amounts with areas that were doused within the past few
days.  However, a front over the northern Gulf of Mexico suggests
that any convection over Louisiana will be elevated and not tapped
into the best instability. There will be the right entrance region
of an upper jet providing support aloft while the GFS and ECMWF
strengthen southerly 850 mb flow into the 35 to 40 kt range over
southern Louisana for a period on Monday ...but precipitable water
anomalies barely reach 1.25 standard deviations above climatology.
 As a result...refrained from highlighting the risk of excessive
rainfall.

Bann



Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4CsFqzoOlkmN7uy6vRqhwjOFUuwvmBvx1O8CzEdLqgET=
M1IBpWkgtVk6oE9F1TNYOdB5JXeIzFrLTLM34-TliPvUJaY$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4CsFqzoOlkmN7uy6vRqhwjOFUuwvmBvx1O8CzEdLqgET=
M1IBpWkgtVk6oE9F1TNYOdB5JXeIzFrLTLM34-TlWXlf6es$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4CsFqzoOlkmN7uy6vRqhwjOFUuwvmBvx1O8CzEdLqgET=
M1IBpWkgtVk6oE9F1TNYOdB5JXeIzFrLTLM34-Tl4tyU95Q$=20


$$



=3D =3D =3D
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