Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Dec 17 2022 09:27:10

ACUS48 KWNS 170927
SWOD48
SPC AC 170925

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0325 AM CST Sat Dec 17 2022

Valid 201200Z - 251200Z

....DISCUSSION...
....Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5...
A shortwave trough is forecast to move into the western Gulf of
Mexico on Tuesday. Ahead of the trough, a moist airmass will be in
place across much of the Gulf of Mexico extending eastward across
the Florida Peninsula. An area of thunderstorms is forecast to
develop in the northern Gulf of Mexico during the day on Tuesday
with this convection moving eastward across the Florida Peninsula
Tuesday evening. Instability and shear parameters are forecast to be
on the low-side for severe weather, and any severe threat is
expected to remain isolated and marginal.

On Wednesday, isolated thunderstorm development will be possible in
south Florida, and in the eastern Carolinas. However, instability is
forecast to be very weak, suggesting a severe threat is unlikely.

....Thursday/Day 6 to Saturday/Day 8...
On Thursday, north-northwesterly mid-level flow is forecast to
develop across much of the central and western U.S. In response, a
very cold airmass will move southward into the Great Plains and
Mississippi Valley. Thunderstorms will be possible along and ahead
of the a front moving eastward through the eastern Gulf Coast states
Thursday afternoon and evening. An isolated severe threat could
develop across the Florida Peninsula but uncertainty concerning the
magnitude of any severe weather threat is substantial at this time.

On Friday and Saturday, a large dome of high pressure is forecast to
settle over much of the continental United States making conditions
unfavorable for thunderstorms in most areas.

...Broyles.. 12/17/2022

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