Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Dec 17 2022 01:00:35

ACUS01 KWNS 170100
SWODY1
SPC AC 170058

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0658 PM CST Fri Dec 16 2022

Valid 170100Z - 171200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight.

....01Z Update...
A belt of strong west-southwesterly midlevel flow extends from the
southern Plains east-northeastward toward the Mid-Atlantic coast.
Along the southern periphery of this flow, regional VWP and 00Z
observed KEY/MFL soundings shows 25-35 kt of west-southwesterly
500-mb flow across southern Florida and the Keys. Beneath this
enhanced flow, surface observations reveal a WSW-ENE-oriented
surface boundary -- with ongoing isolated thunderstorms focused
along the wind shift. Through the overnight hours, this boundary
could drift slightly northward across the Middle/Upper Keys -- where
rich boundary-layer moisture (lower 70s dewpoints) will continue to
support isolated to widely scattered surface-based storms overnight.
Given the modest west-southwesterly midlevel flow atop
east-southeasterly surface winds, 30-40 kt of effective shear
(sampled by observed 00Z KEY sounding) could support a couple
loosely organized storms over the Keys and the Gulf Stream off
southern FL. However, poor deep-layer lapse rates should generally
limit convective intensity.

...Weinman/Guyer.. 12/17/2022

$$

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