Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Dec 16 2022 15:49:05

ACUS01 KWNS 161548
SWODY1
SPC AC 161547

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0947 AM CST Fri Dec 16 2022

Valid 161630Z - 171200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today and tonight.

....Synopsis...
Morning surface observations and satellite imagery show a robust
surface low to the south/southeast of Long Island with a cold front
draped southwestward over far south FL and into the Gulf of Mexico.
Thunderstorm activity will be focused in the vicinity of this low
and the cold front for today/tonight. Latest forecast soundings from
along the New England coast suggest weak buoyancy may linger within
the warm conveyor belt ahead of the low through mid-afternoon. With
convective cloud top cooling noted in recent IR imagery ahead of the
wave, a few sporadic lightning flashes seem plausible through 21
UTC. Across south FL, isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms
will continue to develop through the afternoon and evening amid
modest buoyancy, weak inhibition, and adequate lift along the cold
front. Marginal deep-layer flow may yield transient storm
organization, but the combined buoyancy and wind profiles suggest a
limited severe threat.

...Moore/Grams.. 12/16/2022

$$

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