Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri Dec 16 2022 12:47:34 ACUS01 KWNS 161247 SWODY1 SPC AC 161245 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0645 AM CST Fri Dec 16 2022 Valid 161300Z - 171200Z ....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ....SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today and tonight. ....Synopsis/Discussion... A high-amplitude upper-air pattern across the CONUS features cyclonic flow over most of the landmass, from the Intermountain Region and Great Basin to the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts, anchored by a strong 500-mb low over northwestern WI. This low -- currently nearly stacked with a deeply occluded low-level cyclone -- will meander erratically eastward across northern WI through the period, reaching the MNM area by 12Z tomorrow. A series of mostly low- amplitude and/or strongly positively tilted shortwaves in the mid/upper-level cyclone's southern semicircle will deamplify through the period. This will leave a single shortwave trough by 12Z, near an MCI-TUL-FSI-MAF axis, with flow downstream across the south- central/southeast CONUS becoming nearly zonal. The associated surface cold front was drawn at 11Z over the Atlantic, well east of another occluded low over southern NJ, then southwestward across south FL. As the low tracks east-northeastward just off the southeastern New England Coast, the cold front may drift southward somewhat before becoming quasistationary under parallel flow aloft. Along and south of the front, a moist boundary layer will remain in place, with surface dewpoints commonly in the low-mid 70s F. Though lapse rates ware not very strong, this will combine with diurnal heating to support MLCAPE in the 1000-1500 J/kg range today, amidst weak MLCINH. A few thunderstorms are possible episodically. Lack of both stronger lift and vertical shear will limit convective organization. Isolated lightning also may occur from convection in an elevated warm conveyor, well north of the Atlantic frontal triple point, across coastal southeastern New England. ...Edwards/Kerr.. 12/16/2022 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .