Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Dec 16 2022 09:46:01

ACUS48 KWNS 160945
SWOD48
SPC AC 160944

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0344 AM CST Fri Dec 16 2022

Valid 191200Z - 241200Z

....DISCUSSION...
....Monday/Day 4 and Tuesday/Day 5...
A progressive shortwave trough is forecast to move across northern
Mexico on Monday and into the southern Plains on Tuesday.
Thunderstorm development will be likely ahead of the system in the
Gulf States both on Monday and Tuesday. However, surface dewpoints
in the immediate coastal areas from Texas to Florida are forecast to
remain mostly in the 40s F. This will limit instability, making
conditions generally unfavorable for severe storms. If moisture
return ends up being more than is currently forecast, then an
isolated but confined severe threat would be possible each day.

....Wednesday/Day 6 to Friday/Day 8...
An upper-level trough is forecast to dig southeastward into the
central and eastern U.S. on Wednesday and Thursday. North-northwest
flow aloft will contribute to a strong cold front moving rapidly
southward across the Great Plains on Thursday. This cold and dry
airmass will settle over much of the central U.S. on Friday. Due to
limited moisture return, little thunderstorm activity is expected
during the mid to late week.

...Broyles.. 12/16/2022

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