Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Dec 16 2022 05:47:12

ACUS01 KWNS 160546
SWODY1
SPC AC 160545

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1145 PM CST Thu Dec 15 2022

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Friday.

....Synopsis...
Broadly cyclonic mid/upper-level flow will encompass the eastern
two-thirds of the CONUS -- peripheral to a deep low-pressure system
centered over the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity. Within the
broad cyclonic flow over the East, an embedded shortwave trough will
lift northeastward across New England. As related DCVA overspreads a
plume of strong warm advection, weak elevated buoyancy should
support isolated lightning flashes near coastal New England during
the morning hours. However, much of this activity is expected to
remain offshore.

Farther south, the tail end of a weak cold front will move slowly
southward across southern Florida and the Keys. Ahead of the front,
filtered diurnal heating amid rich boundary-layer moisture (upper
60s/lower 70s dewpoints) should yield sufficient (albeit marginal)
instability for isolated thunderstorm development along/ahead of the
front.

...Weinman/Guyer.. 12/16/2022

$$

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