Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Dec 16 2022 00:38:29

ACUS01 KWNS 160038
SWODY1
SPC AC 160036

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0636 PM CST Thu Dec 15 2022

Valid 160100Z - 161200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm potential appears low the rest of tonight.

....01z Update...

Deep westerly flow has established itself across the FL Peninsula
this evening. 850mb flow will continue to weaken as surface cold
front sags south across the southern peninsula overnight. A band of
weak convection, somewhat organized, is shifting east across this
region but buoyancy over land is expected to continue weakening.
Lapse rates observed on the 00z sounding from MFL do not favor
robust updrafts and weak low-level shear is poor. For these reasons
will not maintain severe probabilities across south FL.

Farther north across the middle Atlantic, strong low-level warm
advection may prove sufficient for a few flashes of lightning with
the strongest elevated convection; however, this activity should
remain isolated.

...Darrow.. 12/16/2022

$$

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