Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2049
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Dec 15 2022 20:42:59

ACUS11 KWNS 152042
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152042=20
FLZ000-152215-

Mesoscale Discussion 2049
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0242 PM CST Thu Dec 15 2022

Areas affected...Parts of the central/southern FL Peninsula

Concerning...Tornado Watch 591...

Valid 152042Z - 152215Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 591 continues.

SUMMARY...Some severe threat may persist through the remainder of
this afternoon, but a gradual weakening trend is expected with time.
New watch issuance is not anticipated.

DISCUSSION...At 2030 UTC, a long-lived storm cluster is moving
eastward across parts of the central FL Peninsula. Despite moderate
buoyancy and favorable deep-layer shear, convection has struggled to
remain organized this afternoon, likely due to decreasing
large-scale ascent and weak low-level convergence as storms become
increasingly displaced from the primary cold front. However, a
stronger bowing segment or embedded supercell remains possible in
the short term, as evidenced by a recent uptick in storm
organization near Melbourne, and a threat for locally damaging gusts
and/or a brief tornado will persist through the remainder of the
afternoon.=20

With WW 591 scheduled to expire at 21Z and a gradual weakening trend
expected with time, new watch issuance is not anticipated.

...Dean/Hart.. 12/15/2022

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_wIqH3SpIFHOQzi_CD88Or0GO3YqeMD7aaOAFtogeq7NUaVuL68BsdlI6MkK1jWNxWceffi1_=
g-u4vkutpTB5YjBbEM$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...

LAT...LON   26808235 27328198 28268065 27818030 27278031 26738111
            26578158 26458204 26808235=20


=3D =3D =3D
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