Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Dec 15 2022 19:49:58

ACUS01 KWNS 151949
SWODY1
SPC AC 151948

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0148 PM CST Thu Dec 15 2022

Valid 152000Z - 161200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA...

....SUMMARY...
A couple tornadoes and occasional damaging winds remain possible
this afternoon over parts of the central Florida Peninsula.

....20Z Update...
Severe probabilities have been trimmed across the FL Peninsula as a
broken line of convection spreads slowly east-southeastward ahead of
a cold front. Low-level flow is expected to gradually veer and
weaken through the rest of the afternoon. While a brief tornado or
two and occasional damaging winds remain possible across parts of
the central FL Peninsula this afternoon, this threat should diminish
by early evening.

An isolated severe threat persists this afternoon across parts of
the Carolinas along and ahead of a cold front. Although instability
remains weak across this area, strong low/mid-level flow would
support updraft organization with any robust thunderstorm that can
form. However, this potential still appears rather low/marginal.

...Gleason.. 12/15/2022

..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1015 AM CST Thu Dec 15 2022/

....FL...
A large upper low is in place today over much of the CONUS, with the
primary surface cold front sagging southward into the FL peninsula
and southeast states.  A line of intense thunderstorms along/ahead
of the front will move into central FL this afternoon, where rich
low level moisture and considerable low-level vertical shear is
present.  Several of these storms have shown supercell/bowing
structures offshore, and also as they have moved inland this
morning.  This scenario will likely continue through at least early
afternoon, before a gradual weakening of wind fields diminishes the
severe threat.  Please refer to MCD #2045 for further short-term
details.

....GA/SC/NC...
The main surface cold front extends from the western Carolinas into
east GA.  Southerly low-level winds ahead of the front will maintain
dewpoints in the 50s and 60s, along with marginal CAPE.  While the
thermodynamic environment appears weak, very strong low and
mid-level winds/shear suggest a risk of brief organization of any
deep convection that can be maintained.  Locally gusty winds or a
brief tornado cannot be ruled out until the front moves offshore
late this afternoon or early evening.

$$

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