Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2048
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Dec 15 2022 18:12:55

ACUS11 KWNS 151812
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151812=20
FLZ000-151945-

Mesoscale Discussion 2048
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1212 PM CST Thu Dec 15 2022

Areas affected...Central FL Peninsula

Concerning...Tornado Watch 591...

Valid 151812Z - 151945Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 591 continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for locally damaging wind and a brief tornado
or two will continue this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Convection has organized into a loosely organized QLCS
early this afternoon from near Tampa Bay northeastward across the
central FL Peninsula. A few wind gusts in the 40-50 mph range have
been noted over the last 1-2 hours, as well as occasional weak
low-level rotation embedded within the line, and a possible brief
tornado earlier in Pinellas County.=20

Wind profiles (as noted in KTBW and KMLB VWPs and the 16Z Cape
Canaveral sounding) remain favorable for organized storms, though
some veering flow near the surface has weakened low-level shear/SRH
to some extent. Low/midlevel lapse remain rather weak across the
central FL Peninsula, which may continue to limit the severe threat
somewhat, though modest heating/destabilization downstream of the
line will help maintain a risk for strong/damaging gusts and a brief
tornado or two through mid afternoon, especially across the
west-central FL Peninsula.=20

While the primary cold front is lagging the ongoing convection,
substantial redevelopment behind the QLCS appears unlikely, with the
stronger large-scale ascent lifting away from the region as the main
deep-layer cyclone occludes over the Upper Midwest.

...Dean.. 12/15/2022

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!5nmEDXtZv2K4gyIxm1Lr4RGURB9HRlafjRHj1581mOxkXK_uxvCX4_BJsGl-ges1W47zfVkWf=
iNZkb4ScWo4JGSjpMA$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...

LAT...LON   28258042 27728121 27278197 26978264 27268279 27588269
            28828147 28928092 28748053 28258042=20


=3D =3D =3D
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