Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu Dec 15 2022 16:17:24 ACUS01 KWNS 151617 SWODY1 SPC AC 151615 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1015 AM CST Thu Dec 15 2022 Valid 151630Z - 161200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL FLORIDA... ....SUMMARY... A few tornadoes and scattered damaging thunderstorm winds will be possible today over parts of the Florida Peninsula. ....FL... A large upper low is in place today over much of the CONUS, with the primary surface cold front sagging southward into the FL peninsula and southeast states. A line of intense thunderstorms along/ahead of the front will move into central FL this afternoon, where rich low level moisture and considerable low-level vertical shear is present. Several of these storms have shown supercell/bowing structures offshore, and also as they have moved inland this morning. This scenario will likely continue through at least early afternoon, before a gradual weakening of wind fields diminishes the severe threat. Please refer to MCD #2045 for further short-term details. ....GA/SC/NC... The main surface cold front extends from the western Carolinas into east GA. Southerly low-level winds ahead of the front will maintain dewpoints in the 50s and 60s, along with marginal CAPE. While the thermodynamic environment appears weak, very strong low and mid-level winds/shear suggest a risk of brief organization of any deep convection that can be maintained. Locally gusty winds or a brief tornado cannot be ruled out until the front moves offshore late this afternoon or early evening. ...Hart/Bentley.. 12/15/2022 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .