Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2045
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Dec 15 2022 15:16:26

ACUS11 KWNS 151516
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151515=20
FLZ000-151645-

Mesoscale Discussion 2045
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0915 AM CST Thu Dec 15 2022

Areas affected...Parts of the FL Gulf Coast

Concerning...Tornado Watch 591...

Valid 151515Z - 151645Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 591 continues.

SUMMARY...Some increase in the tornado threat is expected through
late morning as stronger storms move onshore.

DISCUSSION...At 1515 UTC, a thunderstorm cluster is beginning to
move onshore near and north of the Tampa Bay vicinity. Embedded
supercells within this cluster have occasionally shown moderate
low/midlevel rotation over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Rich
low-level moisture, MLCAPE gradually increasing into the 500-1000
J/kg range, and 0-1 km SRH around 300 m2/s2 (per KTBW VWP) will
support a tornado threat with any embedded supercells as this
cluster of convection moves onshore through late morning. Strong
low-level flow will also support the potential for locally
strong/damaging gusts with the more intense cells and bowing line
segments.=20

Maintenance of favorable wind profiles and gradual
heating/moistening will support an expansion of the tornado and
damaging-wind threat across the FL Peninsula with time, though
widespread cloudiness and generally weak low/midlevel lapse rates
may tend to temper the threat to some extent as convection spreads
eastward.

...Dean.. 12/15/2022

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-WC2olkV_A2vPxuovF-c6ERzpPz0TPlaKSdKyYT15e0Fn2eWMCuI6Z9--t2g-gjfn4BUX9q16=
k0asbt0V7h1egtZzEg$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TBW...JAX...

LAT...LON   28588272 29248303 29428276 29288241 29058214 28558204
            27928207 27308210 27068229 27188259 27418274 27828289
            28318285 28588272=20


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.