Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2043
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Dec 15 2022 08:27:49

ACUS11 KWNS 150827
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150827=20
PAZ000-MDZ000-NYZ000-151330-

Mesoscale Discussion 2043
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 AM CST Thu Dec 15 2022

Areas affected...northern MD into central PA and western NY

Concerning...Freezing rain=20

Valid 150827Z - 151330Z

SUMMARY...Freezing rain, occasionally mixed with sleet, will spread
northward from northern MD into central PA and western NY early this
morning. Freezing rain rates around 0.05-0.10 inches per hour are
possible.

DISCUSSION...A swath of precipitation will continue to lift north
and east early this morning in a warm advection regime ahead of a
midlevel trough lifting northeast toward the Great Lakes.
Thermodynamic profiles over the region indicate a warm nose of 1-3 C
between 850-700 mb. A deep sub-freezing layer is evident below 850
mb, leading to favorable conditions for freezing rain. Sleet may mix
with freezing rain at times, especially across north-central PA into
western NY where midlevel temperatures are forecast to be closer to
0-1 C. Strong ascent through a deep saturated vertical profile and
modest shear will support efficient precipitation rates. Freezing
rain rates around 0.05-0.10 inch per hour are possible, with the
highest rates expected across central PA.

...Leitman.. 12/15/2022

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_zYnyPGnph8r_ceXAKV_FV0su6UOeO-qmXIICcZfw6d7zF6Tc6FviS7_atXc6P9TaBRNjOAZB=
e8w0WdITfgZpDFrm0M$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...LWX...PBZ...

LAT...LON   40967912 41767919 42227895 42497843 42467785 42017742
            40757639 40127617 39757621 39557645 39387679 39347716
            39457745 39597780 40247841 40967912=20


=3D =3D =3D
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