Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Dec 15 2022 08:02:51

ACUS48 KWNS 150802
SWOD48
SPC AC 150801

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0201 AM CST Thu Dec 15 2022

Valid 181200Z - 231200Z

....DISCUSSION...
Severe storms appear unlikely through the Sun/D4-Thu/D8 period, with
little chance of thunderstorms in general.

Model ensembles are in reasonable agreement depicting mean upper
troughing from the northern Rockies and Plains eastward to the
Atlantic Coast. Timing of individual/embedded waves aside, this
pattern will support influxes of high pressure out of Canada,
resulting in cool conditions over most of the CONUS. Surface winds
will remain largely offshore over the Gulf and Atlantic Coasts, with
only limited elevated instability possible over land. Sporadic
elevated convection/weak thunderstorms cannot be ruled out along the
TX Coast on Mon/D5, as a subtle southern-stream wave moves east
across the Gulf Coast. However, only a few hundred J/kg of MUCAPE is
expected Mon/D5 into Tue/D6 with the weak warm advection above the
surface.

...Jewell.. 12/15/2022

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