Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2042
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Dec 15 2022 05:28:52

ACUS11 KWNS 150528
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150528=20
FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-150730-

Mesoscale Discussion 2042
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 PM CST Wed Dec 14 2022

Areas affected...far southeast AL...far southwest GA...FL Panhandle

Concerning...Tornado Watch 589...

Valid 150528Z - 150730Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 589 continues.

SUMMARY...An isolated risk for a tornado will probably continue into
the overnight with stronger supercells.  The primary limiting
factors for tornado potential may be weak low-level lapse rates and
the mid-level disturbance over the MS Valley and associated strong
forcing for ascent becoming increasingly displaced from the region.=20
Convective trends will be monitored for a possible small tornado
watch located to the east of Tornado Watch 589.

DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows a north-south zone of storms near
Apalachicola and a squall line on the front over the western FL
Panhandle extending southwest into the Gulf.  The airmass over the
FL Panhandle is moist and marginally unstable 750-1000 J/kg MLCAPE
according to the latest RAP soundings when modified for current
surface conditions.  Despite adequately large low-level hodographs,
water-vapor imagery suggests the strongest large-scale forcing for
ascent is becoming increasingly displaced from the northeast Gulf
Coast tonight.  Furthermore, the relatively weak surface to 1.5 km
lapse rates are likely not favoring robust low-level updraft
acceleration, and consequently stronger low-level mesocyclones,
other than transient storm-scale rotation.  However, with these
competing factors will probably maintain some risk for a tornado and
localized damaging gusts into the overnight hours.

...Smith.. 12/15/2022

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9El_mwPpvjksh2kI01C4sNgd16Ku9VoKL4tvx1Fe-9SmNe9E7GGtq3X929Ux8-x5aQn80YjmH=
6A8TadyG6y6aavgMfE$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...

LAT...LON   30538652 31278544 31348476 30858421 30168405 29868446
            29628516 30088555 30378638 30538652=20


=3D =3D =3D
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