Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2041
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Dec 15 2022 05:12:22

ACUS11 KWNS 150512
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150511=20
PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-VAZ000-151115-

Mesoscale Discussion 2041
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1111 PM CST Wed Dec 14 2022

Areas affected...Portions of northwestern Virginia and Maryland into
eastern West Virginia and southern Pennsylvania

Concerning...Freezing rain=20

Valid 150511Z - 151115Z

SUMMARY...Freezing rain will increase in intensity overnight across
portions of the Blue Ridge Mountains. Rates of 0.1 to 0.2 inches per
hour.

DISCUSSION...As of 0500 UTC, surface observations within the Blue
Ridge mountains of WV and VA were showing surface temperatures
decreasing to near or below freezing. Likely in response to dynamic
cooling from moderate to heavy stratiform precipitation moving
overhead, temperatures should continue to fall below freezing within
higher valleys overnight. Driven primarily by mid-level warm
advection ahead of an advancing shortwave trough over the Midwest,
precipitation should also continue to intensify above the cooling
surface temperatures. Area RAP soundings show a prominent elevated
1-3 C warm nose extending northward into western MD and southern PA
with the warm advection band. Periods of moderate freezing rain
appear likely with rates of 0.1 to 0.2 in/hr possible. The highest
confidence in freezing rain will be confined to the higher valleys
of northwestern MD/VA, eastern WV and southern PA through early this
morning. Some sleet and snow may also mix in later this morning
before temperatures begin to warm.

...Lyons.. 12/15/2022

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!8Hgf3x-oAylFeXambJjczF5hJHlnPVAdvk0lbqcQzMvOKGfqCeRRG4a41nrG_ODGdHm--vWtq=
TaVpBq2-17s0ivDkHs$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...

LAT...LON   38287988 38897960 39587938 40577893 40787851 40677792
            40507762 40237757 39597798 38957827 38107872 37847907
            37927954 38287988=20


=3D =3D =3D
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