Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2039
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Dec 15 2022 03:19:49

ACUS11 KWNS 150319
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150319=20
ALZ000-150415-

Mesoscale Discussion 2039
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0919 PM CST Wed Dec 14 2022

Areas affected...south-central and southeast AL

Concerning...Tornado Watch 589...

Valid 150319Z - 150415Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 589 continues.

SUMMARY...A mesoscale area potentially favorable for a tornado
seemingly exists across southeast AL.

DISCUSSION...Subjective surface mesoanalysis places a maritime warm
front from near Montgomery southeastward through Dothan.  Surface
conditions south of the warm frontal zone show temperatures in the
upper 60s with mid-upper 60s dewpoints.  KMXX VAD shows more intense
700 mb flow (65 kt) compared to KEOX VAD (45 kt).  The northern
portion of the warm sector is located in between the two radar sites
over south-central and southeast AL.  It appears a localized
corridor of a more favorable wind profile (i.e., enlarged hodograph)
and adequate buoyancy exists in a west-northwest to east-southeast
oriented corridor from Butler/Lowndes counties into far southeast
AL.  As larger updrafts move into this potentially favorable zone, a
supercell tornado risk could increase.  The primary limiting factors
at this time are weak low-level lapse rates (unlikely to change) and
the lack of ongoing supercells in this area (as of 915pm CST).

...Smith.. 12/15/2022

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-1HHqCKdCG62u1PsHUfuuQ-RFJ7UaaDWGh5ANLrsVOCsCCcBtHxIEs2FX8cH83YW5cVKC7W_K=
kuimvsPzaByrEMuoTI$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...

LAT...LON   32188627 32128661 31888671 31608663 31168550 31268526
            31498520 31698534 32188627=20


=3D =3D =3D
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