Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2038
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Dec 15 2022 01:04:25

ACUS11 KWNS 150104
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150103=20
FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-150300-

Mesoscale Discussion 2038
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0703 PM CST Wed Dec 14 2022

Areas affected...portions of the Florida panhandle southwest Georgia
and southern Alabama

Concerning...Tornado Watch 589...

Valid 150103Z - 150300Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 589 continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat is forecast to gradually increase across
western Florida and southern AL over the next couple of hours.
Damaging gusts and a few tornadoes will be possible. Additional
supercells may move onshore from the northern Gulf later this
evening.

DISCUSSION...Across the FL Panhandle and southern AL, convection has
increased in coverage and intensity over the last hour with a few
supercells showing sustained low-level rotation. Short-term model
guidance suggests this trend will likely continue as the axis of the
low-level jet shifts eastward with the main shortwave trough
tonight. Area VAD/VWPS already hint at a 10-15 kt strengthening in
the wind fields showing increasing shear in the lowest 2-3 km.
Regional IR satellite trends also suggest deepening convection in
the northern Gulf, ahead of the main convective line further west,
may also evolve into supercells as it moves onshore in the next
couple of hours. With the moist, unstable (~1000 J/kg MLCAPE) and
strongly sheared environment already favorable for supercells (ESRH
250+ m2/s2), additional storms and increasing deep-layer shear
suggest an uptick in the risk for supercells capable of damaging
gusts and a few tornadoes in the next couple of hours.

...Lyons.. 12/15/2022

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_BaYGRe6jHt4AWsCqRggW2ypj0sLWSwlbSqedY3NdkRhLW4vZkbM6YFu4TSIcy70ITOiIMbC6=
fVNTUG7hDKVr_bymaA$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...

LAT...LON   31628601 31538515 31358474 31168448 30728416 30378398
            30168384 30048382 29898395 29788431 29698462 29558502
            29698535 29868551 30088592 30218646 30178740 30538749
            31038715 31378676 31568629 31628601=20


=3D =3D =3D
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