Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Dec 15 2022 00:39:50

ACUS01 KWNS 150039
SWODY1
SPC AC 150038

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0638 PM CST Wed Dec 14 2022

Valid 150100Z - 151200Z

....THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
FAR SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND THE FAR WESTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

....SUMMARY...
A potential for strong tornadoes and damaging thunderstorm winds
will continue this evening across parts of far southern Mississippi,
southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle.

....Far Southern Mississippi/Alabama/Florida Panhandle...
The latest WSR-88D radar imagery from Mobile, Alabama shows a band
of organized convection, with several embedded tornadic supercells,
extending from far southern Mississippi across southwest Alabama.
Ahead of the convection, a relatively undisturbed airmass is in
place with surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to near 70 F. As a
result, moderate instability is present with MLCAPE estimated by the
RAP in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. In addition, the RAP is
analyzing a 50 to 60 knot low-level jet along this same corridor.
The Mobile WSR-88D VWP is sampling the jet with a long and looped
hodograph. The VWP has 0-3 km storm relative helicity near 475 m2/s2
and 0-6 km shear at 65 knots. This will continue be favorable for
supercells and tornadoes.

The greatest tornado threat will exist over the next few hours from
Mobile northward across much of southwest Alabama, where a
significant tornado may occur. Several tornadoes will still be
possible with rotating cells embedded in the line, and with bow
echoes. However, as the band of storms moves eastward across the
remainder of southern Alabama and into the Florida Panhandle later
this evening, the tornado threat should begin a downtrend. In
addition to the tornado threat, wind damage will also be possible
mainly with bowing segments along the leading edge of the line. The
severe threat will affect areas of central Alabama this evening, but
should be more isolated with northward extent. Also, southwest
Georgia should be impacted with an isolated wind-damage and tornado
threat later tonight as the line of storms continues to move
eastward.

...Broyles.. 12/15/2022

$$

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