Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2034
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Dec 14 2022 22:35:48

ACUS11 KWNS 142235
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142235=20
MSZ000-LAZ000-150030-

Mesoscale Discussion 2034
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0435 PM CST Wed Dec 14 2022

Areas affected...far southeast LA...coastal MS

Concerning...Tornado Watch 588...

Valid 142235Z - 150030Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 588 continues.

SUMMARY...The supercell tornado risk will be greatest from far
southeast LA northeastward to the coastal counties of MS through
630pm CST.  The potential for a strong tornado will probably be
highest with any discrete supercell ahead of the convective line.

DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows a broken line of storms with
embedded supercells from southeast MS southwestward through the New
Orleans metro and into coastal southeast LA.  A couple of discrete
supercells have developed ahead of the convective line over
southeast LA.  These storms will likely have the greatest window of
opportunity for longevity in the warm sector over the next couple of
hours.  The latest RAP forecast soundings show a gradual
strengthening of low-level flow and enlargement of the hodograph
over coastal MS and AL through 6pm CST.  This trend in the
strengthening wind profile has been observed from the KMOB VAD
during the past 2 hours.=20=20

Given the moist/buoyant airmass in place over the immediate central
Gulf Coast, the potential will exist for a few supercells capable of
a tornado risk through the early evening.  The tornado risk will
likely focus with the discrete supercells, but some threat for a
tornado and damaging gusts will continue with storms embedded within
the line as this activity slowly pushes eastward over the next
couple of hours.

...Smith.. 12/14/2022

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!7DP4BDzA8Zwogm3Wow35ugJjlF48K_5NYVDeQpFoccfGHcJ84UvkXJoQ8hP_QYbKZlhnfEqKQ=
1ak74u9WH3GyuPAs8E$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LIX...

LAT...LON   29928990 30328935 30608871 30588846 30468840 30258844
            30058889 29868934 29388978 29328992 29449015 29928990=20


=3D =3D =3D
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