Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2033
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Dec 14 2022 20:53:46

ACUS11 KWNS 142053
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142053=20
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-142230-

Mesoscale Discussion 2033
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0253 PM CST Wed Dec 14 2022

Areas affected...Southeast Louisiana...southeast Mississippi...and
portions of southwest Alabama.

Concerning...Tornado Watch 588...

Valid 142053Z - 142230Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 588 continues.

SUMMARY...Numerous strong supercells continue this afternoon with a
threat for strong tornadoes.

DISCUSSION...Numerous supercells developed this afternoon with only
a few confirmed tornadoes. However, these storms have congealed into
a line of 5-6 dominant supercells extending from Clarke County,
Mississippi to southwest of New Orleans. This storm evolution is
seemingly more favorable for low-level updraft circulations as TDSs
have recently been observed in Clarke County, Mississippi and south
of Lake Pontchartrain from similar strength rotational velocity as
the numerous supercells which lacked a clear TDS in the prior 1 to 2
hours. Therefore, as heating reaches its diurnal maximum, low-level
flow continues to strengthen in association with the deepening
meso-low, and the low-level jet strengthens to 60+ knots per LIX
VWP, storms may be entering the period of greatest tornado
potential.=20

The most favorable environment is currently near New Orleans where
STP values of 4 to 5 exist with a couple supercells approaching from
the Southwest. Therefore, portions of southeast Louisiana, including
the New Orleans metro area may have the greatest chance for strong
tornadoes over the next 1 to 2 hours.

...Bentley.. 12/14/2022

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!7QjQ8x-rV-XYPNaVQdTDlL4hMNbBW3iszGzPrBE4NULKlL16KmqegoVsARCq41vKfMtMmjKcJ=
8PxBzvm_qxyQSZZsj4$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...

LAT...LON   29118988 28989083 29099139 29159154 30099073 31128954
            32018888 32498837 32598785 32418758 31958765 31438794
            30988831 29938884 29358921 29118988=20


=3D =3D =3D
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