Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Dec 14 2022 17:26:16

ACUS02 KWNS 141726
SWODY2
SPC AC 141724

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1124 AM CST Wed Dec 14 2022

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
FLORIDA...COASTAL/SOUTHERN GEORGIA...AND COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms will be possible over portions of southern
Georgia into northern Florida Thursday morning, and through the
afternoon across parts of the Florida Peninsula. A few tornadoes and
scattered damaging winds should be the main threats.

....Florida into Southern Georgia and the Carolinas...
A large-scale upper cyclone encompassing much of the central and
eastern CONUS will remain centered over the Upper Midwest and Great
Lakes on Thursday. A lead mid-level perturbation is forecast to
quickly shift eastward over the East Coast states/Mid-Atlantic
through the day. While the primary surface low will remain over the
Upper Midwest, a secondary low over GA/SC Thursday morning should
develop quickly northeastward across the Carolinas and coastal
southeastern VA by Thursday evening. A related cold front will sweep
eastward across FL, GA, and the Carolinas through the day.

A broken line of thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start
of the period across parts of north FL into GA along or just ahead
of the cold front. Mid to upper 60s surface dewpoints should be in
place ahead of this activity, and modest daytime heating should
support weak instability across the FL Peninsula into coastal GA and
SC. Even though the enhanced low-level flow will gradually veer and
weaken through the day, it should still be sufficiently strong to
support updraft rotation and a threat for a few tornadoes as
convection spreads eastward through the early afternoon. Scattered
damaging winds may also occur before thunderstorms eventually weaken
Thursday evening.

Farther north, a warm front is forecast to lift northward across
central/eastern NC through the day, but meager daytime heating and
related instability should keep the overall severe threat rather
isolated across this area. Better prospects for surface-based
convection will probably remain just offshore the Outer Banks of NC.

...Gleason.. 12/14/2022

$$

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