Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Dec 14 2022 16:27:17

ACUS01 KWNS 141627
SWODY1
SPC AC 141625

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1025 AM CST Wed Dec 14 2022

Valid 141630Z - 151200Z

....THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI...AND WESTERN/SOUTHERN ALABAMA...

....SUMMARY...
Tornadoes (some strong) and damaging thunderstorm gusts are expected
today and tonight across southern parts of Louisiana, Mississippi
and Alabama, and portions of the Florida Panhandle.

....Active severe weather event is anticipated this afternoon and
evening for portions of the central Gulf Coast states...

....LA/MS/AL...
Morning water vapor imagery shows an intense and progressive
shortwave trough rotating across OK/TX.  This feature is expected to
become negatively tilted this evening over AR, with strong
large-scale forcing overspreading much of the mid/lower MS Valley.
Strong southerly low-level winds have established a very moist and
potentially unstable air mass over parts of LA/MS/AL, with dewpoints
in the 70s and visible satellite showing considerable breaks in the
low clouds.  This should result in ample CAPE by mid-afternoon.

A consensus of 12z CAM guidance indicates that discrete supercell
development will commence this afternoon over southeast LA into
southern MS.  This activity will likely persist through the evening
and track into western and southern AL.  Forecast soundings show
very strong low-level vertical shear and favorable deep-layer shear
for tornadoes, along with sufficient CAPE for robust thunderstorms.
Low-level winds are expected to strengthen further during the
afternoon with the approach of the upper trough.  Tornadoes,
including the possibility of strong and long-track tornadoes, are
the primary concern today.  Given the consistent signal in 12z
guidance for numerous supercells, the favorable CAPE/shear
environment, and the impressive nature of the shortwave trough, have
opted to upgrade to MDT risk for portions of the area.

...Hart/Bentley.. 12/14/2022

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.