Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Dec 14 2022 13:36:49

AWUS01 KWNH 141336
FFGMPD
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-141935-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1162
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
836 AM EST Wed Dec 14 2022

Areas affected...southern mississippi, southern and central
Louisiana, far southeast Texas, far southwest Alabama

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 141335Z - 141935Z

Summary...Training/repeating convection should result in flash
flooding across this discussion area through 20Z.  Locally
significant impacts are possible.

Discussion...Radar mosaic imagery and observations indicate an
elongated MCS from central Mississippi west-southwestward through
southwestern Louisiana near Lake Charles.  The forward progress of
the MCS was beginning to stall - especially along an axis from
near Brookhaven, MS to near Opelousas, LA, where MRMS-estimated
rain rates of 3 inches/hr were noted at times.  The rain rates
were the result of an outflow boundary (associated with the MCS)
that was oriented nearly parallel to flow aloft.  Additionally,
strong low-level flow converging with this boundary was promoting
strong updraft development within a moist/buoyant warm-sector
environment characterized by 1000 J/kg MLCAPE and 1.5 inch PW
values. The sustained convergence along the stalled boundary and
mid-level ascent (evidenced by upstream convection across
central/southeast Texas) suggests that areas experiencing heavy
rainfall should continue to do so for several hours, with
localized areas of 5+ inch rainfall totals through 20Z near the
stalled MCS.  Occasional hourly rates of 2-3 inch/hr rain rated
will also be observed.

Given the prolonged nature and nearly stationary axis of heavy
rainfall, a few areas of locally signficant flash flooding are
expected.  Again, the greatest flash flood threat will exist from
near Lake Charles east-northeastward to near Brookhaven, MS.  More
isolated warm-sector convection could orient favorably for
training and heavier rain rates out ahead of the MCS as well,
although the flash flood threat with this activity should be a bit
more isolated compared to areas closer to the leading edge of the
MCS.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!-oeSpQ5UStQBIx5v3unPdhAszoMHgiW-o-VAoXuLnpn8nKR3xGbCbBtiAoEDxbIw91dO=
otfmjv4h1CEaNxTonvz2Ne0$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...HGX...JAN...LCH...LIX...MOB...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...SERFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   33238845 33088735 31858722 31128854 30698997=20
            30259159 29619328 29579443 30199458 30789383=20
            31519211 32389038 33038904=20

=3D =3D =3D
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