Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2027
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Dec 14 2022 08:14:18

ACUS11 KWNS 140814
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 140813=20
MSZ000-LAZ000-141015-

Mesoscale Discussion 2027
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0213 AM CST Wed Dec 14 2022

Areas affected...central and southern MS into portions of southern
LA

Concerning...Tornado Watch 585...586...

Valid 140813Z - 141015Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 585, 586 continues.

SUMMARY...A couple of tornadoes and sporadic strong gusts remain
possible across WW 585 and 586. The greatest relative threat into
early morning will exist across southern MS into southwest LA.

DISCUSSION...A surface warm front is analyzed from near
Holmes/Attala counties in MS southeastward toward the Mobile Bay
vicinity as of 08z. This warm front is not expected to move much
over the next several hours, which will confine the better
warm-sector airmass across southern MS into southern LA through
early morning. An ongoing line of convection with bowing segments
and embedded supercells continues to very slowly shift eastward with
some transition toward training convection and heavy rain over the
past couple of hours. Semi-discrete cells appear most likely across
parts of southern LA into far southern MS where low-level confluence
is most apparent. Given favorable low-level shear and modest
instability, rotating cells, both ahead of the line and embedded
within the line, will continue to pose a risk for a couple of
tornadoes and sporadic strong gusts into early morning across WW 585
and 586. A new watch or local extension in time may be needed across
parts of southwest LA as WW 585 is set to expire at 10z, and some
threat may persist beyond watch expiration time.

...Leitman.. 12/14/2022

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-rSQ8giUq3xxgrSDYLduJyVi2L-hXZQSZHb_4whE3BNIR484fzya4OLiaaarBYmdzQk9ghMyk=
Exp6p0aKnZKxUiKo9s$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...MEG...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

LAT...LON   30549078 30139196 29839293 29809330 29879359 30059363
            30379356 30809293 31309236 33748970 33818917 33638868
            33308859 32638863 32048876 31758894 31238951 30549078=20


=3D =3D =3D
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