Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Dec 14 2022 08:11:16

FOUS30 KWBC 140811
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
310 AM EST Wed Dec 14 2022

Day 1
Valid 12Z Wed Dec 14 2022 - 12Z Thu Dec 15 2022

....THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM PARTS OF
EASTERN LOUISIANA TO WESTERN ALABAMA...

The robust upper level jet streak and associated pivoting
shortwave energy will cause the broad mid-upper level trough to
become more negatively tilted Wed-Wed night, which will result in
a slower, more north-south oriented cold front. This will allow
for a much slower west to east progression of pre-frontal lines of
convection, thereby boosting the chances of 1.5-2.5 inch/hr
rainfall rates within the Moderate Risk area per the latest 40km
HREF neighborhood probabilities. Once again, the high-res/CAM
consensus shows multiple axes of 3-6+ inches within the Moderate
Risk area, with isolated maxima of 6-8". Based on the simulated
reflectivity guidance, the bulk of these totals will fall within 6
hours, which is supported by the higher (30-50%) HREF
probabilities of 6 hourly QPF exceeding 3". Robust low-mid level
moisture transport is again depicted with the 00Z guidance, as
both the GEFS and SREF indicate 850-700 mb moisture flux anomalies
between 3 and 4 standard deviations above normal.

The Moderate Risk was largely maintained (lifted north a tad based
on the guidance trends) over portions of southern/eastern
Louisiana, southern-central Mississippi, and western Alabama given
the most favorable environment for sustained, slow moving
convection (MUCAPEs 1000-2000 J/kg) and enhanced moisture supply.
The Marginal and Slight Risk areas were expanded further north to
reflect the latest WPC QPF and latest trends.

Hurley


Day 2
Valid 12Z Thu Dec 15 2022 - 12Z Fri Dec 16 2022

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Hurley


Day 3

The Day 3 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!7vbGPxc9r_6Tow6tf8-PXX3Ftg1FC6ZSm_ovKCVQ-IXr=
YyUlsQhWbMJELNJMJwhDjuLTxhRt5J552pHuaauakMNT8B8$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!7vbGPxc9r_6Tow6tf8-PXX3Ftg1FC6ZSm_ovKCVQ-IXr=
YyUlsQhWbMJELNJMJwhDjuLTxhRt5J552pHuaaua3mU6GdI$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!7vbGPxc9r_6Tow6tf8-PXX3Ftg1FC6ZSm_ovKCVQ-IXr=
YyUlsQhWbMJELNJMJwhDjuLTxhRt5J552pHuaauauO-8Zs0$=20


$$



=3D =3D =3D
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