Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Dec 14 2022 06:27:08

ACUS02 KWNS 140627
SWODY2
SPC AC 140625

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1225 AM CST Wed Dec 14 2022

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN AND
NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA INTO SOUTHERN SOUTH
CAROLINA...

....SUMMARY...
A few severe storms will be possible over parts of the Southeast
early Thursday from southern Georgia into northern Florida, and
through the afternoon across central and western parts of the
Peninsula.

....FL...GA...eastern Carolinas...
A deep upper low will remain over the upper MS Valley Thursday, with
a broad area of cyclonic flow aloft extending to the East Coast. A
strong leading midlevel wave will move across the Appalachians
during the day as a cold front rapidly surges across the
southeastern states.

A broken line of storms will likely be ongoing along the cold front
at 12Z Thursday, over much of southern GA into northern FL. At the
same time, a low-level jet will be situated over the area with
speeds of 40-50 kt aiding theta-e advection, with mid 60s F
dewpoints into southern GA. This will result in favorable low-level
shear for both brief tornadoes and damaging winds with ongoing
activity along the cold front, especially from northern FL into
southern GA. Given the rapid movement of the front, the main severe
threat is forecast to wane after 18Z over most areas, the exception
being the western FL Coast as activity moves onshore. Here,
low-level shear/veering winds with height may favor supercells and
bowing structures producing damaging winds and perhaps a tornado.

Farther north into the Carolinas, a warm front will move rapidly
north toward southeast VA by 21Z, with dewpoints near 60 F. However,
modified soundings show little SBCAPE due to cool temperatures,
despite strong shear. Lift from warm advection may lead to scattered
showers and a few thunderstorms, but any strong/severe storms are
expected to be isolated. An isolated supercell cannot be ruled out
especially near the coastal areas through 00Z.

...Jewell.. 12/14/2022

$$

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