Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2025
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Dec 14 2022 05:06:41

ACUS11 KWNS 140506
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 140505=20
MSZ000-LAZ000-140700-

Mesoscale Discussion 2025
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1105 PM CST Tue Dec 13 2022

Areas affected...Mississippi...Far Northeast Louisiana

Concerning...Tornado Watch 584...

Valid 140505Z - 140700Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 584 continues.

SUMMARY...A severe threat is expected to continue during the
overnight period across parts of western and central Mississippi.
Wind damage, tornadoes and hail will be possible with the more
intense storms. Weather watch issuance may be needed to the east of
WW 584.

DISCUSSION...The latest WSR-88D radar imagery from Jackson,
Mississippi shows an organized line of storms from northeast
Louisiana into northwest Mississippi with more discrete cells ahead
of the line. This large area of convection is located along an axis
of instability with MLCAPE generally in the 500 to 1500 J/kg range.
In addition, 0-6 km shear along this corridor is in the 50 to 60
knot range according to RAP analysis. This shear environment will
continue support supercell development overnight. The more intense
cells that remain discrete will likely have tornado potential. A
tornado and wind-damage threat will also exist with the more
organized line segments, with the tornado threat mostly confined to
areas where the surface dewpoint is at 63 F or greater. At this
time, persistent supercells are ongoing within the center of WW 584.
 The track of these storms will determine if a new watch needs to be
issued further to the east across parts of central and eastern
Mississippi.

...Broyles/Grams.. 12/14/2022

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!8uZRS5pGy6ZfIcvntxOqh0cXy6FWHkiQZ3pYYKD4b4h-zNlPS7ULFoVaKUVOE1Pc9CfRCoCuw=
S9ZsyH5LuaV1Geo3os$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON   33059066 32149124 31429153 30929152 30579116 30599060
            30789015 31318974 32308935 33258886 33888867 34128888
            34228943 34168984 33949021 33059066=20


=3D =3D =3D
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