Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2024
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Dec 14 2022 02:48:37

ACUS11 KWNS 140248
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 140248=20
LAZ000-MSZ000-TXZ000-140415-

Mesoscale Discussion 2024
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0848 PM CST Tue Dec 13 2022

Areas affected...portions of southeast Texas into southern...and
central Louisiana

Concerning...Tornado Watch 583...

Valid 140248Z - 140415Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 583 continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat is expected to remain past the 04z
expiration of WW583. A replacement tornado watch will be coordinated
shortly.

DISCUSSION...Over the last hour, regional radar trends suggest
convection has strengthened across east TX ad southern/central LA in
response to increasing deep-layer ascent and the eastward shift of
the low-level jet axis. Additional convective development appears
likely owing to an uncapped, moist and highly sheared warm sector
evident from the 00z LCH sounding and area VAD/VWPs. CAMs suggest
the highest probability for new development/maturation of supercells
is on several warm advection confluence bands ahead of the slow
moving cold front from far southeast TX into central LA. With strong
shear and sufficient buoyancy in place through much of the night,
the risk for supercells and a few tornadoes will continue past the
04z expiration of WW583. A new watch will be coordinated to replace
it.

...Lyons/Grams.. 12/14/2022

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!6tT4kaggbOiRo9vE5pmHE0d54Qp-GtPKGUGDE762KbRWg2MOJGHsGUbNfmedwQmduYeY9OSom=
KMRLPqz3boh2u2mZZw$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX...

LAT...LON   32589209 31789182 30739139 30549135 30379132 30199147
            29999205 29959214 29939273 29889377 29949458 30239490
            30599497 30949464 31569397 31809363 32189318 32339290
            32589258 32709231 32589209=20


=3D =3D =3D
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