Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2019
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Dec 13 2022 22:44:37

ACUS11 KWNS 132244
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 132244=20
LAZ000-TXZ000-140015-

Mesoscale Discussion 2019
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0444 PM CST Tue Dec 13 2022

Areas affected...portions of far eastern Texas and west-central
Louisiana

Concerning...Tornado Watch 583...

Valid 132244Z - 140015Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 583 continues.

SUMMARY...A localized corridor of greater tornado potential appears
to be evolving from near Interstate 20 southwest, across far eastern
TX and west-central LA.

DISCUSSION...As of 22:40 UTC, regional radar analysis showed several
supercells reaching maturity ahead of the cold front across portions
of far eastern TX and west-central LA. Likely wider and more robust
as a result of greater storm-relative inflow and forcing near the
frontal band, these updrafts are expected to remain relatively
uninterrupted as they track northeastward toward an analyzed warm
front over the next 1 to 2 hours. Very strong low-level shear
(0-500m SRH 200+ m2/s2) from KPOE VAD and SPC mesoanalysis will
favor strong low-level mesocyclones with an attendant risk for
tornadoes, some of which could be strong.

...Lyons.. 12/13/2022

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!42t6Ch8HkNqpz8hyMOWDTXN67spLqYaenzBBuuODYOh61MsGwyio-CbO676cTDvyE_krg98XR=
iSZcOUJ1zCs9qV8AQY$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...

LAT...LON   31189410 31069441 31109460 31289454 31609440 31879425
            32159415 32399402 32489379 32549353 32529338 32499314
            32429282 32379272 32059270 31639306 31279385 31189410=20


=3D =3D =3D
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