Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2018
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Dec 13 2022 21:52:07

ACUS11 KWNS 132152
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 132151=20
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-132315-

Mesoscale Discussion 2018
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0351 PM CST Tue Dec 13 2022

Areas affected...East TX...Northern/Central LA

Concerning...Tornado Watch 582...583...

Valid 132151Z - 132315Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 582, 583 continues.

SUMMARY...Threat for discrete supercells capable of all severe
hazards, including tornadoes, continues.

DISCUSSION...Discrete supercells continue to develop within the warm
sector over east TX and western LA. These storms have remained
relatively shallow, but have still shown strong low-level rotation.
This overall trend is expected to continue as discrete development
continues ahead of the cold front. Recent SHV VAD data continues to
show robust wind fields, with 0-1 km storm-relative helicity around
470 m2/s2 and 0-1 km shear near 50 kt. These strong winds will
continue throughout the evening, leading to a persistence of the
tornado threat. Additionally, the number of discrete storms is
expected to gradually increase, resulting in an overall increase in
the tornado potential.

...Mosier.. 12/13/2022

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-6PIJPD9KKOBXlnGhpNiXzYN_Z5YSCIUSJbENa0FWKkh-EiuaNCY3rn3f6wWfOaMp_ebvwDb-=
N_gdXieUxkAivZ4PHM$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...

LAT...LON   31979496 32729422 33029328 32849253 32249225 30889304
            30499384 30939602 31979496=20


=3D =3D =3D
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