Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Dec 13 2022 20:33:07

AWUS01 KWNH 132033
FFGMPD
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-140230-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1158
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
331 PM EST Tue Dec 13 2022

Areas affected...northern and northwestern Louisiana, far eastern
Texas, southern Arkansas,

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 132030Z - 140230Z

Summary...A clear uptick in convective intensity and coverage is
underway in northeast Texas.  Localized areas of training should
result in areas of 1-2 inch/hr rainfall rates, which could result
in isolated/localized flash flooding.

Discussion...Deepening convection has been observed across far
northeastern Texas in the past half hour as evidenced by cooling
cloud tops via satellite and intensifying cores via radar mosaic
imagery.  The overall regime appears to be supported by strongly
difluent flow aloft atop a warming, destabilizing warm sector
containing confluent low-level flow.  Scattered bands/clusters of
storms continue to migrate northeastward with relatively little in
the way of upscale growth or forward propagation at the moment.=20
Localized training and/or repeating storms have increased rainfall
rates into the 1-2.5 inch/hr range just north of Longview, which
was approaching the 2-3 inch/hr FFG thresholds there but only on a
very localized/isolated basis.

The ongoing convective trends (featuring very isolated instances
of heightened rainfall rates supporting flash flooding) will
likely continue through 02Z or so.  The ongoing axis of storms in
northeast Texas should gradually translate eastward and
east-northeastward across southern Arkansas and northern Louisiana
through that time frame.  Current trends suggest that the greatest
(yet isolated) flash flood risk for the Shreveport area should
exist between 21-23Z and spread into more of
southern/south-central Arkansas between now and 00Z.  Additional,
open-warm-sector initiation may also occur between Monroe and
Alexandria that could also result in an isolated flash flood risk
especially after 23Z.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!5xqjBZlupJqtP9d6GLXjuN0NDN18JyITSs0p2PVz_Ij7bMPOgzHH1jvWUjBw82sGDnED=
98kwjN_h1PNtm0bWvZ0mJv4$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...JAN...LCH...LZK...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   34509252 34349165 33249143 32099149 31349214=20
            31119371 31359524 32479512 33219462 34119365=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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