Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2016
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Dec 13 2022 20:13:10

ACUS11 KWNS 132012
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 132012=20
LAZ000-TXZ000-132115-

Mesoscale Discussion 2016
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0212 PM CST Tue Dec 13 2022

Areas affected...Northeast TX...Northwest LA

Concerning...Tornado Watch 582...

Valid 132012Z - 132115Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 582 continues.

SUMMARY...A corridor of greater supercell and tornado potential
appears to exist over northeast TX and northwest LA

DISCUSSION...A pair of supercells have recently developed within
Cherokee and Gregg Counties in northeast TX. The air mass in the
vicinity of these storms is characterized by temperatures in the
low/mid 70s, dewpoints in the upper 60s, and MLCAPE around 1000
J/kg. These relatively modest thermodynamic conditions are paired
with robust kinematic fields. Recent VAD data from SHV sampled 50 kt
around 1 km, 0-1 km shear around 45-50 kt, and 0-1 km storm-relative
helicity over 500 m2/s2. Mesoanalysis estimates effective STP values
are around 3. This parameter space appears favorable for the
persistence of these supercells as well as additional new
development. Given the favorable wind fields, tornadoes are possible
over the next several hours, including the potential for a few
strong tornadoes.

...Mosier.. 12/13/2022

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9O-IZ-Qd7jujdtsPWKGj0vdrfWIKI6HJlbbaOZcHFrUr6WxjbTNWVG7v8hgSBgn6ad7ipWqsA=
wzLp8tza_c150Nf5VU$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...

LAT...LON   32369497 32729460 32939395 32459309 31629342 31219392
            31179554 31699546 32369497=20


=3D =3D =3D
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