Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2015
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Dec 13 2022 19:33:41

ACUS11 KWNS 131933
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131933=20
ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-132130-

Mesoscale Discussion 2015
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0133 PM CST Tue Dec 13 2022

Areas affected...East/Southeast TX...Northwest LA...Southern AR

Concerning...Tornado Watch 582...

Valid 131933Z - 132130Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 582 continues.

SUMMARY...Threat for supercells capable of all severe hazards
continues across Tornado Watch 582. A downstream Tornado Watch will
likely be needed across southern AR, northwest LA, and
east/southeast TX.

DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis places a triple point low about
20 miles east of PRX, with a cold front extending southwestward from
this low through central TX. A warm front also extends southeastward
from this low through northwest and central LA (delineated well by
the 65 deg F isodrosotherm). Thunderstorm activity along the cold
front has weakened over the last hour or so, while showers have
increased throughout the warm sector. Most of these warm sector
showers have not strengthened significantly. However, very recent
trends have signaled some strengthening with the storms in Anderson,
Houston, and Robertson Counties, evidenced by increasing
reflectivity and lightning activity. Given their placement in the
warm sector, some additional strengthen/maturing into supercells is
possible.

The warm front is expected to continue slowly lifting northward
while the cold front advances eastward. This will take the warm
sector farther east into more of east/southeast TX, northwest LA,
and southern AR through this evening. As such an additional Tornado
Watch will be needed for portions of the region within the next hour
or so. Given the favorable parameter space, PDS wording is being
considered.

...Mosier/Hart.. 12/13/2022

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_sLxSou07UlZKqT4HnTzLS0rBB_19q1A75qbKsYXygaXGfKa4RGDhVqKdg-QRnEqEtSWPyyRz=
LR0QGzQFpEI_4tzvNQ$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...

LAT...LON   30739640 31859603 33499430 33859288 33259214 30999352
            30249529 30739640=20


=3D =3D =3D
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