Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2014
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Dec 13 2022 17:41:34

ACUS11 KWNS 131741
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131741=20
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-131945-

Mesoscale Discussion 2014
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1141 AM CST Tue Dec 13 2022

Areas affected...Southwest OK...Southwest AR...Northeast/Central TX

Concerning...Tornado Watch 582...

Valid 131741Z - 131945Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 582 continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for all severe hazards, including tornadoes,
continues from far southeast OK/southwest AR across northeast TX
into central TX.

DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis places a triple point low about
25 miles west of PRX, in the vicinity of the ongoing
tornado-producing storm near Lamar County TX and Choctaw and
McCurtain Counties in OK. Mesoscale enhancement of lift and shear is
likely contributing to the persistence of this storm as it continues
through a less favorable thermodynamic environment.

A cold front extends southwestward from this low back through
central TX. A few stronger storms have recently developed in the
vicinity of this front over McLennan and Hill Counties. Undercutting
character of the front suggests that hail is likely the predominant
severe threat with these storms.=20

Showers have also begun to deepen farther east in Freestone County
and vicinity, with some lightning recently observed. These storms
appear to be well placed within the warm sector for further
intensification, although storm interactions could mitigate this
process somewhat. Vertical shear remains strong and any storms that
can persist and mature within this environment could become
supercells capable of all severe hazards, including tornadoes.

...Mosier.. 12/13/2022

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-qvlD9YzSiFHrv7B0Qn7ZWSGeANZmthzlwClYukD6N6bk_kHBiJ_DlEj1lG4kKfQOqDrxIxbV=
m1OiA4u8kM-YmZKRuI$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...

LAT...LON   31299759 33339574 34149512 33549375 31839431 30879617
            31299759=20


=3D =3D =3D
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