Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2011
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Dec 13 2022 12:01:41

ACUS11 KWNS 131201
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131200=20
TXZ000-OKZ000-131330-

Mesoscale Discussion 2011
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0600 AM CST Tue Dec 13 2022

Areas affected...north TX

Concerning...Tornado Watch 581...

Valid 131200Z - 131330Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 581 continues.

SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms capable of all hazards are possible
across north TX the next 1-3 hours.

DISCUSSION...A broken line of convection with embedded supercells
will continue to shift eastward across north TX early this morning.
This activity will move into the Metroplex and areas to the north
toward the Red River before shifting east of the I-35 corridor in
the next 1-3 hours. Temperatures in the mid/upper 60s F and
dewpoints in the low/mid 60s F beneath modest midlevel lapse rates
are contributing to SBCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg amid strong vertical
shear. The latest KFWS VWP indicates enlarged, favorably curved
low-level hodographs with 0-1 km SRH values greater than 300 m2/s2.
Low-level instability and vorticity are maximized in a narrow
corridor along/just ahead of this line of convection, and STP values
have increased to between 2 and 3. Given the favorable overlap of
low-level instability and strong low-level shear, a corridor of
increasing tornado and damaging-wind potential centered on the I-35
corridor across north TX is possible the next couple of hours.

...Leitman.. 12/13/2022

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-A9OYs5I4BUHwZJrruajNt_oP5GqrJHf2OUWMzvKsr1bFC1EbMq07LLR9GXw-nO5e2v_Da_M2=
2WMzcqJbfqcgnElkOU$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   32179856 32339868 32879841 33009841 33289821 33629793
            33869766 33989742 34009726 33999704 33889685 33389665
            32699657 32579665 32429708 32369734 32179856=20


=3D =3D =3D
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