Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Dec 13 2022 07:41:28

FOUS30 KWBC 130741
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
240 AM EST Tue Dec 13 2022

Day 1
Valid 12Z Tue Dec 13 2022 - 12Z Wed Dec 14 2022

.....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM FAR EAST
TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

Broad mid-upper low will migrate into the central-northern Plains
later Tue and Tue night, as a 130+ kt southern stream jet streak
develops across North-Northeast TX. As this occurs, favorable
broad scale/elongated along-stream forcing will push into much of
the Mississippi Valley, with more focused (enhanced) exit-region
forcing (upper difluence and divergence) across the Lower MS
Valley out ahead of the aforementioned upper level jet streak. The
guidance continues to depict higher areal-average QPF totals over
this region, with areal-average amounts of 1-2" along with
isolated 3-5" amounts, owing to the enhanced deep-layer forcing
(robust moist southerly inflow/moisture transport) and more
favorable thermodynamic setup. PW values peaking between
1.5-1.75", low-mid layer moisture flux anomalies 3 to 4+ standard
deviations above the mean, and MUCAPEs 500-1000 J/Kg will allow
for spotty 1.5-2.0"/hr and 2.5-3.0/3hr rainfall rates within the
Slight Risk area.

Hurley


Day 2

The Day 2 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 3

The Day 3 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5jw3wBFoReCJVjhU8yZIxGdXIapc_ev1npaEDyNI7qOl=
lMKjuf3TNuA2i4ZV06KotXWvkbNHNDoIBLcAHbCjuNNfOAA$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5jw3wBFoReCJVjhU8yZIxGdXIapc_ev1npaEDyNI7qOl=
lMKjuf3TNuA2i4ZV06KotXWvkbNHNDoIBLcAHbCjGWUk1Fc$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5jw3wBFoReCJVjhU8yZIxGdXIapc_ev1npaEDyNI7qOl=
lMKjuf3TNuA2i4ZV06KotXWvkbNHNDoIBLcAHbCjrdiGB-s$=20


$$



=3D =3D =3D
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