Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2007
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Dec 13 2022 05:29:56

ACUS11 KWNS 130529
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 130529=20
SDZ000-NEZ000-130930-

Mesoscale Discussion 2007
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1129 PM CST Mon Dec 12 2022

Areas affected...parts of southwestern South Dakota into the
Nebraska Panhandle

Concerning...Heavy snow=20

Valid 130529Z - 130930Z

SUMMARY...Heavy snow rates rates on the order of 1-2 inches per hour
may develop through 11 PM-2 AM MST, along a corridor from southeast
of Chadron NE into the Philip SD vicinity.

DISCUSSION...Sub-freezing low-level air (including surface temps
around 20F) remains entrenched across the high plains of western
South Dakota into the Nebraska Panhandle, to the west of a surface
trough axis extending north of a deep surface low over eastern
Colorado.  This is near the northwestern periphery of an expanding
precipitation shield (where convective cloud tops have been
cooling), which appears likely to overspread portions of the
Nebraska Panhandle into southwestern South Dakota to the southeast
of the Black Hills and Badlands through 06-09Z.  This is likely
being supported by forcing associated with a northward propagating
mid-level jet streak, which probably is maximizing lift in the
600-500 mb layer, where temperatures are favorably cold for large
dendritic ice crystal growth.  Given the cold surface temperatures
and precipitable water increasing toward .5 inches, a sustained
period (roughly 1-3 hours) of heavy snow rates on the order of 1-2
inches per hour appears possible.

...Kerr.. 12/13/2022

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_vJ8lRSPBqK1Iiv-OsaWITkLdaFRNRMFCsjVzBVb3S1QfK9PQ6unaO71L_YnRn2AkQ9fsWIS3=
b61uIibpqqeymcZda8$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR...CYS...

LAT...LON   44250223 44770107 43820072 43650069 43040105 42010196
            42320261 43140287 44250223=20


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.